Wednesday, June 25, 2008

IMPERFECT CRYSTAL BALL

Back in July of 2005 I was writing a weekly Real Estate column for the local newspaper. The column I wrote that particular week changed my life. In the column that day I had made a rather bold prediction about the Real Estate industry through the year 2011.
You have to remember in July of 2005 the Real Estate was flying high and everyone that read my column that day thought I was either insane or a total crack pot.
This is what I said on that fateful day in July of 2005.
I stated that I sensed a momentum change about to hit the Real Estate industry of epic proportions. I stated that we were about to go into a very deep down cycle that would last at least three years. At this point, it appears that I was right and it may even last a little longer, although personally I think we have reached the bottom.
Before I go into what I had predicted in that fateful column, let me take a moment to tell you why that column changed my life. At the time I had a six office franchise Real Estate operation with 200 Realtors. My business partner never read my columns until he read them in the newspaper. The following Monday morning after reading that particular column, he asks me to join him in his office.
He only had one question. His question was, did I believe what I had written. When I answered yes, he said then we need to make a phone call. The phone call was to a large publicly traded Real Estate company that had made several overtures to us, wanting to buy our company. So we sold the company at the height of the market.
So, back to that fateful column. Not only did I predict that the Real Estate industry would be hit by the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane, but the down market would last at least 3 years, and in addition to the resale market being way down, new construction would become as dead as road kill.
Here it is almost July of 2008 and we all know the condition of the Real Estate industry and we also all know that new construction is definitely as dead as road kill.
Now here is the second part of that bold prediction I made in July of 2005, and I suspect almost everyone will again think when they read this prediction that I’m either insane or a total crack pot.
In 2011 the Real Estate industry will be flying high again and this is why I say that. It all hinges on the fact that new construction is as dead as road kill. Because there is virtually no new construction coming out of the ground, the resale inventory is going to start to disappear.
The reason I say this is because the new construction industry will be hesitant to come out of the ground with any new product until the resale inventory is down to a 3 to 4 month inventory level. Even then the new construction industry doesn’t appear overnight. They have to lay the infrastructure, get permits and then start construction.
From the time the new construction industry decides to get back in the business actively and the time it takes to bring a new product to market is usually two years. In the mean time the investors are appearing in many markets again as I’m writing this column and they are gobbling up all the fire sales, thereby reducing inventory. We won’t even discuss that the country is predicted to grow by an additional 15 million people by 2011.
I’m sure not everyone sees this the way I see it, but if I’m right the Real Estate industry will be flying high again in 2011. Don’t be surprised by the beginning of 2010 you start see periodic articles in certain areas stating that prices are rising due to a shortage of inventory. By 2011 I believe we will be facing a severe inventory shortage in many communities in this country.
As I said in that fateful column in July of 2005 all of this is based on the premise that our countries economy is in a normal cycle.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Technology Vs. Reality

Virtual Real Estate Offices Give Brokers a Supervisory Edge

At the midyear legistrative National Assn. of REALTORS convention in Washington DC this year I was talking with a past NAR President. I asked this past President if he was aware of a law in Tennessee that states if a REALTOR lives 50 miles from a broker, he is not permitted to work for that broker and would need to select a different broker. He not only wasn’t aware of the law but like myself was somewhat surprised that a law like this would exist in today’s world.

I’m sure that this law was enacted to help the broker to provide supervision over the REALTORS working under that brokers license. Thirty years ago, maybe even 20 years ago, that may very well have been the case, but not today.

You have to stop and ask yourself the following question: "If a REALTOR lives 49 miles away and another REALTOR lives 51 miles away, is the state actually saying that the agent that lives two miles further down the road, can’t be supervised by the broker as well as the REALTOR that lives two miles closer? With today’s technology of letting agents fax or scan files and documents, and the ruling that electronic signatures are legal, this just seems to be an antiquated law that has yet to be revisited. The supervision is so much better today with technology, because rather than the REALTOR having to drive 49 miles to deliver the paperwork to his broker, the REALTOR can now have the paperwork to the broker is minutes rather than hours.

So if supervision is the key to this law, wouldn’t you think that the sooner a broker can review the paperwork to make sure everything is copacetic, the better the supervision?I state from experience that having a REALTOR that doesn’t do things right sitting across the desk from me never made that REALTOR start doing things right. The bad REALTOR will always remain a bad REALTOR and the only solution is to rid yourself of the bad REALTOR. Whereas a conscientious REALTOR will always try to do it right, so with technology, a good REALTOR can live a thousand miles away.

Now let’s discuss why this law is very GREEN unfriendly. In today’s world with global warming and the gas crisis, why in the world would a state require a REALTOR to drive to the office every time they have a new contract? Let’s think about this for a moment. A REALTOR lives 49 miles away. With this law they have to drive a round trip of 98 miles, polluting the air, burning fossil fuels and supporting our national debt because of having to buy oil from the Middle East. There is just nothing in this law that makes sense in today’s world

I never thought I would be an outspoken advocate of taking care of our planet, but in just the last month on two different occasions, I had cause to say “ Why are we doing this, it isn’t good for our planet”.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Realtor Magazine: Allison James Estates and Homes, A Broker Standout!


Our company has been in business for a short time yet the exposure we are receiving is tremendous. A new company, a new vision.

Click here for Article

Friday, April 18, 2008

BY ACCIDENT, VIRTUALLY GREEN

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 18, 2008
BY ACCIDENT, VIRTUALLY GREEN
“When I conceived of the virtual business model for ALLISON JAMES ESATES & HOMES in May of 2007, I knew we had the formula to provide a win-win-win situation for the Broker, Realtor and consumer, but I never dreamed that we would also provide a ‘win’ for the environment as well,” explained James A Crumbaugh III, CEO. “We’re proud to stake the claim that we’re the Fastest-Growing Virtual Real Estate Company in the Country, and now it seems, by becoming a TRUE VIRTUAL Real Estate Company, we have, quite by accident, also become the Greenest Real Estate Company in the Country”
Because ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES has no brick and mortar offices nationwide, their State Broker Affiliates and Realtor Associates work directly out of their home offices, saving on both energy consumption and carbon emissions. “You won’t find our Realtor Associates driving to and from the office two or three times a day, producing pollutants,” Crumbaugh said. Their team members can also work more productively since they don’t have to spend long hours commuting to the brick and mortar environment. “Goodness knows,” Crumbaugh comments, “with gas at an all time high of $3 to $4 a gallon, our Realtor Associates are delighted to keep that money in their pockets.”
Also, with no brick and mortar Real Estate offices to supply with electricity for lights, heat, air-conditioning, electronics, etc., the company’s carbon footprint nationally is substantially minimized, compared to a traditional real estate company.
At ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES, they supply their team members with state-of-the-art custom webpage technology. They’ve also developed energy-efficient procedures in every aspect of their day-to-day operation. In every aspect, they’ve replaced the old “brick and mortar” practices (read “energy consuming”) with high tech, user-friendly equivalents, which are easier on the environment.
Realtor Associates download their required forms through their custom website provided by the company. This saves the Realtor Associate a trip to the local Board of Realtors and once again saves fuel consumption, and the resulting pollutants.
They require their national team members to scan all transaction documents and email them to their corporate offices in Florida, where they securely store the documents electronically for a minimum of five years. “It’s a real plus.” Crumbaugh noted. “All of our members have online access to any of their documents 24/7 from their home offices.” Rather than having thousands upon thousands of transactions documented on paper, they file all of the items electronically, saving a small forest or two in the process.
“Yet,” Crumbaugh explained, “we haven’t lost the personal touch. That’s very important.” The company’s entire recruiting, application, interviewing and activation process is accomplished online (and via teleconference) by their friendly and knowledgeable staff. This means the Realtor Associate doesn’t need to drive to meet the Broker. Also, since the entire hiring process is accomplished virtually, they save thousands of pieces of paper that a typical brick and mortar environment would require.
In addition, thanks to Webinar technology, meetings among team members can be held online and face-to-face, from coast to coast. This saves thousands in travel expenses and fuel consumption, while preserving the many benefits of in-person communication.
“Probably the one thing I’m most proud of,” Crumbaugh noted, “is our growing capability to use electronic signatures.” They recently invested in this cutting-edge technology since the US government ruled that electronic signatures were legally valid and binding in all 50 states. Crumbaugh is currently working with Real Estate Boards and State Commissions to enable all of their required documents to be electronically signed.
There are still a number of Real Estate Boards and State Commissions that are stuck in the past, according to Crumbaugh. They are still requiring a PAPER document with a WET signature to be submitted. ALLISON JAMES ESTATES AND HOMES is leading the industry in a national movement to establish a VIRTUAL business model, where electronic signatures will be accepted in every state of the union. This is another small step in establishing the company as a green–friendly trustee of the environment.
“The senior management of ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES didn’t set out to become a GREEN company,” Crumbaugh said, “but because we have chosen to develop and invest in systems to grow into a major National Virtual Real Estate Company, in the process we are leading the industry in becoming the GREEN REAL ESTATE COMPANY.”
END

 Please consider the environment before printing this document!

Monday, March 10, 2008

WASHINGTON STATE OPENS March 10th, 2008

ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES, the fastest growing Virtual Real Estate Company in the country, is excited to announce that the Washington State Real Estate firm of MELASTIN REALTY has become part of the ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES family of Realtors.

MELASTIN REALTY located in the city of Vancouver, was founded in 1992 by Randy Bacon. Randy, was introduced to ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES through one of his Realtors. He quickly realized that this was the original vision he held back in 1992 when he first founded MELASTIN REALTY.

It is time that Realtors identify with today’s technology and fast paced environment. The Brick and Mortar real estate office is becoming an obsolete asset, no longer needed for an agent’s success. With the national team of ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES, the consumer, Realtor, and Real Estate Brokers all win.

According to the ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES President Mr. Scott Chamberlin, we are very fortunate to have the quality firm of MELASTIN REALTY join our Real Estate family. Mr. Chamberlin goes on to say that we are currently in negotiations with other firms in the Northeastern States.

ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES expects to be open in at least 20 states by the summer of 2008. We continue to grow at an astonishing pace according to Mr. Chamberlin. In fact we have already out grown our corporate office and will be moving this summer into larger facilities, so that we can continue our recruiting efforts on behalf of our Brokers.

We have decided to move forward in setting up an evening call center, so our recruiters can more efficiently call the western states. We are even looking at the possibility of setting up a Saturday shift. We still have several states available and if a Broker has an interest in joining ALLISON JAMES ESTATES & HOMES, they need to contact Mr. Scott Chamberlin at schamberlin@allisonjamesrealtors.com or call him at 1-866-720-0210.

Monday, March 3, 2008

From The Presidents Desk March 3rd, 2008

“TECHNOLOGY DELIVERED”
Scott Chamberlin, President
Allison James Estates & Homes


I can vividly recall sitting in a small brokerage in Del Mar, CA in 1984 handwriting addresses on postcards that introduced my real estate services. During, what seemed like thousands of postcards, I thought to myself how wonderful it would be if there was some way I could create a list of clients that I could access without having to hand-write or use a typewriter every time I wanted to market my services.

I then spent the afternoon licking stamps with a 2-inch thick MLS book in my lap researching homes for a buyer that I had solicited the week before.

Then next day I walked into my Broker’s office and he was sitting behind a grey box with a rainbow colored apple on it, with what looked like a bite taken out of it. I asked him what it was and what was he doing, for he was typing on a plastic keyboard and the silence of his actions intrigued me. Where was the constant hum of the typewriter, and the click-click-click?

He explained to me that he was inputting names and addresses on an Apple computer, into a piece of software called “The List Handler”. He then reached over and pulled out of the computer a flat black square card and handed it to me. He said, “Here, this is your list of names and addresses for your future marketing needs. Every address that you had in your rolodex is stored on this disk and can be printed on labels with a simple command”.

My Broker had been in the industry for a number of years, had a engineering degree, and he went on to predict, for he possessed an early understanding of computers and was well read on how the computer industry was evolving, that one day we would be able to capture the technology of computers and that it would revolutionize the business world and certainly the Real Estate Industry.

Well, 23 years later I truly can say that he was the first to show me that truly Technology had been Delivered and would continue to have a major affect on the real estate world. I successfully began using that small 5 ¼ floppy disk drive Apple computer and I have never looked back.

I recently read on the NAR website that in today’s real estate market it is a known fact the 80 +% of all buyers across this country go to the Internet and locate a home that they are interested in potentially buying long before they start looking for a real estate agent. It is a known fact that many, if not most top producers in today’s real estate market are driving business to themselves via the Internet and via their artistically designed web pages. It is a known fact that these top producers rarely even go into a brick and mortar environment on a daily or weekly basis.


The Real Estate Industry continues to embrace and grow with the Internet, although it is not nearly to the capacity that it can and will one day.


Scott Chamberlin, President of Allison James Estates and Homes,
The Fastest Growing Virtual Real Estate Company in the Country

Presents
“Technology Delivered”

"An intriguing insight into the current affect of Virtual Technology in the Real Estate World...and the benefits of working from a home office environment"

Virtual Internet MLS
Tax Benefits
Saving $’s by not having to drive to the office
Helping to save the planet by not driving to the office
Saving trees by not using paper but utilizing a paperless virtual approach to all of your paperwork
Using electronic signatures on all of your documents instead of a wet signature and a paper trail
Storing all of your documents electronically with a user name and password access
Broker training and weekly meetings through teleconferencing and Webcam interaction
Email marketing instead of snail mail expensive fliers, why go door to door anymore when you can reach thousands of potential consumers for listings virtually
Etc.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

CEO Message Feb. 25th, 2008

Allison James Estate and Homes Opens
For Business in Several New States


Allison James Estates & Homes, a company that is utilizing a national Internet-based business model, continues to add new states to its program. Since opening its first state in California on Oct. 1, 2007, the start-up company has added an additional 10 states to its operations.
“What a wild few months it’s been,” said company President Scott Chamberlin. “Our original goal was to be open in a couple of states by year’s end. But we were able to begin operations in 11 states with eight more under contract and expected to open soon. The growth has been spectacular.”
Considering the fact that they opened Allison James Estates & Homes at the very bottom of the worst real estate market in 30 years, the companies growth has been impressive. The product they offer was obviously needed by the real estate industry, Chamberlin said. “We’re recruiting all day, every day, and as a result we are now in a position to start doing acquisitions.
“With all the closings of Real Estate companies that we have witnessed over the last few months, we have decided to make acquisitions a vital part of our growth plans. There is no reason that an owner that worked for years building his or her real estate company should end up losing everything because of the current market situations.”
Chamberlin said that under Allison James Estates & Homes’ business plan, the company will continue to acquire both brokers and agents as more businesses go under, putting them into a position to offer any Broker a way to continue to generate cash flow for the next three years.
“We’re prepared to look at companies with several thousand Realtors, and companies with as little as 15 Realtors. We hope this message gets out to the Real Estate industry. We understand what these Brokers are facing and we hope to offer them some hope.”
With this explosive growth in the number of states coming on-board, he explained, the company knew they had to go outside the box to create the type of aggressive recruiting program they’d promised the brokers in those states. Their approach is designed around their corporate office doing all the recruiting for the national company.
CEO James Crumbaugh III originally conceived of the idea 20 years ago when he was first recognized as one of the top recruiters in the country. “My belief at that time was if a company ever did all the recruiting nationally, that company would become the largest real estate company in the country in a very short time,” he said.
With the advent of the Internet, the fact that most Realtors conduct business from their own home offices, and all the changes and volatility in the industry, leaders of Crumbaugh said that the timing is ideal to perfect their recruiting efforts nationally.
“We currently are generating 1,800 calls per day with a goal of 3,600 calls a day within the next month. “Real estate professionals immediately see the advantage of keeping 100% of their commission for a flat monthly fee,” Crumbaugh said. “It’s a no-brainer.”
To learn more about what Allison James Estates & Homes has to offer, you can visit their website http://AllisonJames.RealTalk.com contact the company President, Scott Chamberlin at schamberlin@allisonjamesrealtors.com or call 1-866-720-0210.